Conflict and Continuity: The Future of Hezbollah in the Wake of Israeli Military Strikes on Lebanon
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55559/fgr.v1i4.24Keywords:
Hezbollah, Israeli–Lebanese Conflict, Asymmetric Warfare, Middle East Politics, Resistance Movements, Geopolitical StrategyAbstract
This paper discusses how Hezbollah can survive in the future, with the assumption of new Israeli military attacks on Lebanon, and how these events will influence the strategies, politics and ideologies of the Hezbollah. The study takes a qualitative approach, where the case studies and document analysis are seen to assess how Hezbollah has reacted to recent heightening, its changing role in Lebanon and the overall regional dynamics that involve the Iran, Syria and Israel. The paper is based on the realism and the constructivism and suggests that Hezbollah is at a crossroads: whether to remain a resistance movement and stay firmly rooted in politics. It has been indicated that key findings are that military confrontation helps to strengthen its legitimacy of resistance but domestic pressures and international scrutiny jeopardize its long-term survival. The study brings out weaknesses of the current Israeli deterrence policies and weaknesses of the Lebanese state machinery. The paper highlights the necessity to reset the regional policy, which would consider the origins of the influence of Hezbollah and wider geopolitical tension that leads to conflict.
References
Arreguín-Toft, I. (2005). How the weak win wars: A theory of asymmetric conflict. Cambridge University Press.
Azani, E. (2009). Hezbollah: The story of the Party of God. Palgrave Macmillan.
Berti, B. (2016). Armed political organizations: From conflict to integration. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Biddle, S., & Friedman, J. A. (2008). The 2006 Lebanon campaign and the future of warfare: Implications for army and defense policy. Parameters, 38(1), 30–53.
Byman, D. (2011). A high price: The triumphs and failures of Israeli counterterrorism. Oxford University Press.
Byman, D. (2021). Hezbollah’s strategic calculus and the danger of escalation. Brookings Institution.
Cordesman, A. H. (2006). Preliminary "lessons" of the Israeli-Hezbollah war. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Cronin, A. K. (2015). ISIS is not a terrorist group: Why counterterrorism won’t stop the latest jihadist threat. Foreign Affairs, 94(2), 87–98.
Denzin, N. K., & Lincoln, Y. S. (Eds.). (2018). The SAGE handbook of qualitative research (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.
Gordon, M. R., & Cohen, Y. (2020). Israel’s covert campaign to stop Hezbollah’s precision missile project. Wall Street Journal.
Gordon, M. R., & Cohen, Y. (2024). Israel and Hezbollah: New front in a multi-theatre conflict. Wall Street Journal.
Harb, M., & Leenders, R. (2005). Know thy enemy: Hizbullah, ‘terrorism’ and the politics of perception. Third World Quarterly, 26(1), 173–197.
Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: The rise of hybrid wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
Jones, T. (2023). Hezbollah and Israel: Renewed confrontation and regional risks. Middle East Security Report, 12(1), 45–60.
Kaldor, M. (2012). New and old wars: Organized violence in a global era (3rd ed.). Stanford University Press.
Katz, Y. (2023). Hezbollah’s precision missile project: A strategic challenge. Jerusalem Post.
Kilcullen, D. (2009). The accidental guerrilla: Fighting small wars in the midst of a big one. Oxford University Press.
Makdisi, K. (2024). The limits of deterrence: Hezbollah, Israel, and the specter of regional war. Middle East Policy, 31(1), 25–42.
Makdisi, K. (2024). The new Cold War in the Middle East: Iran, the Gulf, and proxy warfare. Middle East Policy, 31(1), 22–40.
Makdisi, S., & Marktanner, M. (2009). Trapped by consociationalism: The case of Lebanon. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 11(1).
Matthews, M. (2008). We were caught unprepared: The 2006 Hezbollah-Israeli war. U.S. Army Combined Arms Center.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. W. W. Norton.
Norton, A. R. (2007). Hezbollah: A short history. Princeton University Press.
Picard, E. (2012). Lebanon: A shattered country – Myths and realities of the wars in Lebanon. Holmes & Meier.
Ranstorp, M. (2010). Hizbullah in Lebanon: The politics of the Western hostage crisis. Palgrave Macmillan.
Ranstorp, M. (2024). Hezbollah's evolving strategy post-Gaza war. Carnegie Middle East Center.
Roul, A. (2009). Hizbollah's information warfare. Terrorism Monitor, 7(5).
Saad-Ghorayeb, A. (2002). Hizbu'llah: Politics and religion. Pluto Press.
Salam, N. (2011). The role of Hezbollah in Lebanon’s politics. Middle East Policy, 18(4), 42–60.
Smith, R. (2005). The utility of force: The art of war in the modern world. Knopf.
UNIFIL. (2023). Reports on ceasefire violations and Blue Line monitoring. United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.
UNIFIL. (2024). Monthly reports on South Lebanon security conditions. United Nations.
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.
Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics. Cambridge University Press.
Wilner, A. S. (2011). From deterrence to defense: The Israeli response to Hezbollah's strategic doctrine. Comparative Strategy, 30(4), 358–375.
Wittes, T. C. (2023). U.S. Middle East policy and the challenges of the Axis of Resistance. Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Published on:
Also Available On
Note: Third-party indexing sometime takes time. Please wait one week or two for indexing. Validate this article's Schema Markup on Schema.org
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Mohammed Kabeer Garba (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
